Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

  1. Davide Faranda 101617
  2. Gabriele Messori 5
  3. Tommaso Alberti 1
  4. M Carmen Alvarez-Castro 9
  5. Théophile Caby 15
  6. Leone Cavicchia 12
  7. Erika Coppola 13
  8. Reik Donner 14
  9. Berengere Dubrulle 18
  10. Vera Melinda Galfi 4
  11. Emma Holmberg 7
  12. Valerio Lembo 2
  13. Robin Noyelle 6
  14. Pascal Yiou 10
  15. Bernardo Spagnolo 3
  16. Davide Valenti 3
  17. Sandro Vaienti 8
  18. Caroline Wormell 11
  1. 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma
  2. 2 CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
  3. 3 Università degli studi di Palermo - University of Palermo
  4. 4 Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
  5. 5 Uppsala Universitet [Uppsala]
  6. 6 Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
  7. 7 Uppsala University
    info

    Uppsala University

    Upsala, Suecia

    ROR https://ror.org/048a87296

  8. 8 Centre de Physique Théorique - UMR 7332
  9. 9 Universidad Pablo de Olavide
    info

    Universidad Pablo de Olavide

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02z749649

  10. 10 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
  11. 11 Australian National University
    info

    Australian National University

    Canberra, Australia

    ROR https://ror.org/019wvm592

  12. 12 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
  13. 13 Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste]
  14. 14 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    info

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

    Potsdam, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/03e8s1d88

  15. 15 Centro de Matemática - Universidade do Porto
  16. 16 Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
  17. 17 London Mathematical Laboratory
    info

    London Mathematical Laboratory

    Londres, Reino Unido

    ROR https://ror.org/03cznfh76

  18. 18 Service de physique de l'état condensé
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Journal:
Physical Review E : Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

ISSN: 2470-0053,  2470-0045

Year of publication: 2024

Volume: 110

Issue: 4

Pages: 1001

Type: Article

DOI: 10.1103/PHYSREVE.110.041001 GOOGLE SCHOLAR

More publications in: Physical Review E : Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

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Abstract

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms, and many others. Despite the intrinsic differences between these events, they all originate as temporary deviations from the typical trajectories of a geophysical system, resulting in well-organized, coherent structures at characteristic spatial and temporal scales. While statistical extreme value analysis techniques are capable of providing return times and probabilities of occurrence of certain geophysical events, they are not apt to account for their underlying physics. Their focus is to compute the probability of occurrence of events that are large or small with respect to some specific observable (e.g., temperature, precipitation, solar wind), rather than to relate rare or extreme phenomena to the underlying anomalous geophysical regimes. This paper outlines this knowledge gap, presenting some related challenges, new formalisms and briefly commenting on how stochastic approaches tailored to the study of extreme geophysical events can help to advance their understanding.