Are the sovereign CDS premia sound estimators of the stock market returns?Evidence from the Eurozone

  1. Ana Navarrete Wic 1
  2. Filippo Di Pietro 2
  3. José Luis Martín Marín 1
  1. 1 Universidad Pablo de Olavide
    info

    Universidad Pablo de Olavide

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02z749649

  2. 2 Universidad de Sevilla
    info

    Universidad de Sevilla

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03yxnpp24

Journal:
Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

ISSN: 1886-516X

Year of publication: 2018

Volume: 25

Pages: 130-155

Type: Article

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Abstract

En este documento, exploramos la interconexión y las relaciones existentes entre los Soberanos Credit Default Swaps (en adelante, CDS) y los mercados bursátiles de los principales países europeos. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este documento es comprobar si las primas de CDS pueden predecir los rendimientos del mercado de valores de las economías más relevantes dentro de la zona euro, de modo que sirvan como indicadores avanzados como los mecanismos de transmisión de precios. Para este propósito, aplicamos la prueba de Causalidad de Granger para analizar los diez principales mercados bursátiles europeos desde 2004 a 2016 mediante el uso de datos diarios. Se ha demostrado que nuestra hipótesis funciona para las economías más grandes con mercados de CDS líquidos, mientras que el mecanismo de transmisión entre los CDS y los precios de las acciones no es tan evidente para los más pequeños.

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