Evolución de las dinámicas demográficas de España y su relación con algunos indicadores económicos relevantes (1950-2017)

Abstract

This research thesis analyzes the relation between economic indicators and demographic variables of Spain. For each demographic dynamic, business cycles are analyzed descriptively since 1950 to 2017 in Spain. The collected data comes from Official secondary sources. The territorial framing for this research is the whole of Spain and segmented by Spanish Autonomous Communities. The methodology was mainly quantitative with serial temporal analysis of demographic and socioeconomic data. We performed descriptive, bivariable and multivariable analyses of population relating them to economic data. The project is framed beginning from 1950, since there has been statistically reliable demographic data. Also, this year allowed analysis of important historical moments such as the post-war period and the democratic transition in Spain, the oil crisis of 1973, the entry into European Economic Community or the recent international crisis. Several economic indicators were selected, highlighting the production and employment indicators. This research has a methodology based on some analysis already made by relevant authors in demography such as Tomas Sobotka from Vienna Institute of Demography. For example, his article Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World. The analyzed demographic dynamics are fertility, international migrations (both immigration and out-migration), marriage and mortality in Spain. The influence of economy on each demographic dynamic has been studied, through relevant indicators and also observed have been the changing of demographic trends taking into account the identification of business cycles in Spain. Special attention must pay to immigration and births in times of economic expansion, as well as the out-migration and deaths during economic crises since these are the elementary mechanisms in the studies of human populations. And also, shown are migrations’ evolution and fertility levels, to consider demographic sustainability within aging process in which Spain is located. The analysis was more focused on the last business cycles of expansion and crisis. The economic expansion attracted a huge quantity of immigration without precedents in Spain. It was linked very much to the building sector’s boom. Later came the economic crisis, that was official declared in 2009 by the Spanish Government with 17.8% of unemployment rate, which reached the maximum with 26.1% in the year 2013, the migration balance becoming negative, according to the data of National Institute of Statistics. In 2017, Spain had recovered an unemployment rate of 17.2%, just a few decimals lower than in 2009. In spite of improving the economic situation, Spain continues recovering from the crisis. It can be detected on the data, which are showing questions more social like the poverty risk indicator. Before the crisis, it was 23.7% in 2009 and, although it has decreased progressively since 2014, it was at 25.7% in 2017. 9 That economic crisis, which Spain has not finished, is going to be more aggravated with the consequences of epidemiologic crisis of COVID-19. In this research thesis it is perceived how the economy influences on demography, which determine the socioeconomic reality, as much on an individual as on a structural level.