El ciclo económico y la actividad turística

Abstract

Chapter 2 analyses the relationships in the Spanish tourist markets by region. In a novel approach from the literature, we use a model of Fractional Cointegration (FCVAR), [Johansen (2008a, b) and Johansen and Nielsen (2012)), which is an expansion of the CVAR, proposed by Johansen (1995) with monthly periodicity from 2000ml to 2016ml 1. This approach provides a novel methodology applied to the tourism literature. It has allowed us to avoid the restrictions associated with traditional cointegration while understanding the stability of Spanish tourism markets at the same time. In particular, our results reveal several patterns in the Spanish tourism regions. Despite a common relationship that emerges across a majority of regions, Catalonia could be a predictor of the pattern for the rest of these regions, while Madrid seems to be independent in the relationship analysed. Furthermore, it is crucial to note that although most regions are highly related, some of them are segmented. Therefore, when aiming to reach an equilibrium of the Spanish tourist markets in the long term, these perspectives need to be considered in designing tourism policies. In chapter 3, we have studied the relationship between economic cycles and the arrival of tourists to Spain distinguishing by regions. To this end, the Hodrick-Prescott standard calibration providing a basic aspect for band pass filters and the methodology used by the NBER with a significant difference, we use the MBBQ algorithm which is adjusted for quarterly data and was developed by Harding and Pagan (2002). Our results support several interesting ideas in order to establish common and particular policies for each region, and also highlight the relevance to take into account the cycle in it design. In particular, we identify that the cycle matches with the financial crisis (2008) which affected to all the regions and a quasi-generalised cycle in the European sovereign debt crisis (2012). Indeed, a general synchronization among them is determining its structure, although the features of the business cycle show that Catalonia and Madrid have some particular characteristics from the other regions. Finally, chapter 4 develops an analysis of the expenditure made by non-resident tourists who carry out some type of tourist stay in Spain. An OLS regression model is used, in which the controlled variables collect socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics. The data used come from Estadística de Movimientos en Frontera and de la Encuesta de Gasto Turístico (FRONTUR and EGATUR).The analysis shows that the differences in the expenditure variable for each of the levels of the controlled variables are significant. This research provides valuable information for the implementation of tourism policies in increasingly segmented markets.