Incorporating demographic knowledge in parametric models for forecasting households size
ISSN: 0014-1151
Any de publicació: 2014
Volum: 56
Número: 185
Pàgines: 381-399
Tipus: Article
Altres publicacions en: Estadística española
Resum
In this paper we show how expert knowledge, such as hypothesis of convergence, can be included in a parametric model for forecasting households size. To do this we fit the parameters of a generalized multinomial logistic model by solving an optimization problem, in which the demographic knowledge is expressed as parameters constraints. The parameters are tuned by means of standard and userfriendly optimization software. The methodology is tested on Spain and one of its regions, Andalusia