Probability estimation of changes in the wave propagation parameters as a consequence of sea level rise in the Andalusian Atlantic coast

Abstract

Sea Level Rise is of the most studied climate change’s effects, which combined with an increment of the storminess and wave climate variation is expected to have severe impacts on the world’s coastlines. The joint effect of the probability of sea level rise and wave hydrodynamic is outstanding methodology that allows the estimation for a given coastal sector of its morphodynamic behaviour for variety of sea level rise scenarios. In the present work, variations in wave parameters (significant wave height, wave energy dissipation and propagation) as a consequence of sea level rise are assessed for the coastal area between Chipiona and Rota municipalities in the province of Cádiz (SW Andalusia). The local probabilities spectrum is calculated through the integration of the observed sea level rise trends from the Cádiz tide gauge and by using the centrality and deviation parameters of the IPCC scenario RCP8.5. Furthermore, the mean and extreme wave climate has been analysed using the offshore wave buoy from Cádiz. The resulting variables, along with an integrated topo-bathymetry grid (in which the topographic zero is corrected with the mean sea level of Alicante) are used as input values for the nearshore wave simulations. Results highlight how variations in the configuration of the coastaline (such as orientation and platform steepness) along with the existence of coastal features (rocky platforms) influence the behaviour of wave energy propagation along the study area for the different probability cases analysed.