Economic Crisis and Household Formation in the Iberian Peninsula (2003-2017)

  1. Alberto Montero Soler
  2. Jonathan Torres Téllez
Aldizkaria:
Revista portuguesa de estudos regionais

ISSN: 1645-586X

Argitalpen urtea: 2022

Zenbakia: 62

Orrialdeak: 77-97

Mota: Artikulua

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This paper studies the effects of a negative economic shock on household formation in Spain and Portugal over the period 2003-2017 and for how long these effects last. We use a Vector Au-torregressive (VAR) model with different variables that, according to academic literature, might affect the creation of households. The results show that the negative impact on household for-mation has different effects in both economies: while in the Portuguese case there is an immediate impact which lasts for six quarters, in Spain the effect becomes visible from that moment on. It can also be established that household formation in Portugal shows a higher sensitivity to the con-ditions of the real-estate market offer than in Spain. Also, in this last country the variables related to real-estate market may explain more than 60% of this variance, while in Portugal the unem-ployment rate and housing prices are those which gain a greater significance

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