Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras

  1. Josué Alan Cantú Esquivel 1
  2. Humberto Rios Bolivar 1
  3. Ana Lorena Jiménez Preciado 1
  1. 1 Instituto Politécnico Nacional

    Instituto Politécnico Nacional

    Ciudad de México, México


Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas (REMEF): nueva época

ISSN: 2448-6795 1665-5346

Year of publication: 2023

Volume: 18

Issue: 1

Type: Article

DOI: 10.21919/REMEF.V18I1.669 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

More publications in: Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas (REMEF): nueva época


Objective: This work analyzes the cyclical synchronization among macroeconomic time series, whose phase couplings incidentally established the mechanisms of propagation and causality in cyclical oscillations of the variables and implicitly fostered periods of the economic and financial crisis in the American economy. Method: we use cyclical phase synchronization in time series in addition to Granger causality tests of VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive). Results: this research explains the mechanisms by which monetary policy decisions are reflected in the movements of macroeconomic variables and how its effects transmit inefficiencies in the performance and behavior of aggregate financial and macroeconomic variables, originating the “boom and bust” process in the US economy. Recommendations: strengthen the analysis through causal nested relationships in time series to capture the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. Limitations and implications: the dynamic adjustment is not pertinent for lineal systems. Main contribution: there is a strong relationship between cyclical subsystems of variables and the dynamics of transmission and cyclical causality is time variant, highlighting the beginning of economic-financial cycles.