¿Estuvo el mundo al borde del apocalipsis en 1983?una reinterpretación de Able Archer 83

  1. Guillem Colom Piella 1
  1. 1 Universidad Pablo de Olavide
    info

    Universidad Pablo de Olavide

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02z749649

Revue:
Ayer

ISSN: 1134-2277 2255-5838

Année de publication: 2023

Número: 131

Pages: 299-326

Type: Article

DOI: 10.55509/AYER/1493 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAccès ouvert editor

D'autres publications dans: Ayer

Résumé

One of the most unusual episodes of the Cold War took place in November 1983, coinciding with NATO’s command post exercise Able Archer 83. There is a broad consensus that Moscow miscalculated these exercises aimed at testing NATO’s nuclear release procedures as a cover for a surprise attack. Consequently, the USSR prepared to con-duct a first strike. By using available sources, this article aims to recreate the events and the prevailing interpretation to expose inconsistencies and to propose an alternative explanation: Moscow knew about the exercise and the military response was not motivated by a «war scare» but by a show of force

Références bibliographiques

  • Ambinder, Mark: The brink: President Reagan and the nuclear war scare of 1983, Nueva York, Simon & Schuster, 2018.
  • Andrew, Christopher, y Gordievsky, Oleg: KGB: The Inside Story of its Foreign Operations from Lenin to Gorbachev, Nueva York, Harper Collins, 1990.
  • Andrew, Christopher, y Gordievsky, Oleg: Comrade Kryuchkov’s Instructions: Top Secret Files on KGB Foreign Operations, 1975-1985, Palo Alto, Stanford University Press, 1993.
  • Andrew, Christopher: For the President’s Eyes Only. Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush, Nueva York, Harper Collins, 1996.
  • Azrael, Jeremy: The Soviet Civilian Leadership and the Military High Command 1976-1986, Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 1987.
  • Barrass, Gordon: «Able Archer 83: What Were the Soviets Thinking?», Survival, 58(6) (2016), pp. 7-30.
  • Barrass, Gordon: The Great Cold War: A Journey Through the Great Cold War, Stanford, Stanford University Press, 2009.
  • Blackwell, James: Cognitive Hyper-Dissonance: Nuclear Signaling Through Military Exercises, Alexandria, CNA, 2020.
  • Burt, Peter: Thirty years ago: the nuclear crisis which frightened Thatcher and Reagan into ending the Cold War, Reading, NIS, 2013.
  • Charles, Elizabeth (ed.): Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981-1988, Volume IV, Soviet Union, January 1983-March 1985, Washington, Department of State, 2021.
  • Chancellor, Henry: 1983: On the Brink of the Apocalypse, Londres, Flashback, 2007.
  • Cherkashin, Viktor, y Feifer, Gregory: Spy Handler: Memoir of a KGB Officer, Nueva York, Basic Books, 2005.
  • Colby, Elbridge, et al.: The Israeli «Nuclear Alert» of 1973: Deterrence and Signalling in Crisis, Alexandria, CNA, 2011.
  • Colom, Guillem: «La segunda Guerra Fría y el desplazamiento del balance de fuerzas en Europa», Ayer, 99 (2015), pp. 175-198.
  • Colom, Guillem: «Cuando la realidad supera la ficción: la operación RYAN (1981-1991)», Ayer, 112 (2018), pp. 265-293.
  • Colom, Guillem: «Haciendo posible lo impensable: opciones selectivas, disuasión a medida y fallos en la disuasión nuclear (1984-1994)», Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 54 (2020), pp. 121-148.
  • Department of the Air Force: Exercise Autumn Forge 83, MAC/000XE (30 de enero de 1984).
  • Director of Central Intelligence: Implications of Recent Soviet Military-Political Activities, SNIE 11-10-84 (18 de mayo de 1984).
  • Director of Central Intelligence: US/Soviet Tension, CR-NIC-03508-04 (19 de junio de 1984).
  • Director of Central Intelligence: Soviet Policy Toward the United States in 1984, SNIE-11-9-84 (9 de agosto de 1984).
  • Directorate of Intelligence: Soviet Thinking on the Possibility of an Armed Confrontation with the United States, SOV-M-84-10013X (30 de diciembre de 1983).
  • Downing, Taylor: 1983: Reagan, Andropov, and a World on the Brink, Londres, Little Brown, 2018.
  • Ermath, Fritz: «Observations on the War Scare of 1983 from an Intelligence Perch», Parallel History Project on NATO and the Warsaw Pact (6 de noviembre de 2003), http://www.php.isn.ethz.ch/lory1.ethz.ch/collections/colltopic320b.html.
  • Fearon, James: «Signalling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs», Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(1) (1997), pp. 68-90.
  • Fischer, Benjamin: A Cold War Conundrum: the 1983 Soviet War Scare, CS97-10007, Langley, CIA Center of the Study of Intelligence, 1997.
  • Fischer, Benjamin: «Anglo-American Intelligence and the Soviet War Scare: The Untold Story», Intelligence and National Security, 27(1) (2012), pp. 75-92.
  • Fischer, Benjamin: «Scolding Intelligence: The PFIAB Report on the Soviet War Scare», International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 31(1) (2018), pp. 102-115.
  • Fischer, Beth: The Reagan Reversal: Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold War, Columbia, University of Missouri, 1997.
  • Garthoff, Raymond: «Soviet Leaders, Soviet Intelligence, and Changing Views of the United States, 1965-91», en Paul Maddrell (ed.): The Image of the Enemy: Intelligence Analysis of Adversaries since 1945, Washington, Georgetown University Press, 2015, pp. 41-80.
  • Goodman, Melvin: Failure of Intelligence: The Decline and Fall of the CIA, Lanham, Rowman & Littlefield, 2008.
  • Hersh, Seymour: «The Target is Destroyed»: What Really Happened to Flight 007 and What America Knew About It, Nueva York, Random House, 1986.
  • Heuser, Beatrice: «Military exercises and the dangers of misunderstandings: the East West Crisis of the Early 1980s», en Beatrice Heuser, Tormod Heier y Guillaume Lasconjarias (eds.): Military Exercises: Political Messaging and Strategic Impact, Roma, NDC, 2018, pp. 113-140.
  • Hines, John; Mishulovich, Ellis, y Shull, John: Soviet Intentions 1965-1985, McLean, BDM Federal, 1995.
  • Joint Intelligence Committee: Soviet Union: Concern About a Surprise NATO Attack, JIC-84-N-45 (23 de marzo de 1984).
  • Joint Intelligence Committee: The Detection of Soviet Preparations for War Against NATO, JIC-84-5 (15 de junio de 1984).
  • Jones, Nate: «Soviet “Huffing and Puffing”, “Crying Wolf?”, “Rattling Pots and Pans?” or “A Real Worry That We Could Come into Conflict through Miscalculation?”», The 1983 War Scare: «The Last Paroxysm» of the Cold War (16 de mayo de 2013), https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB426/.
  • Jones, Nate: Able Archer 83: The Secret History of the NATO Exercise That Almost Triggered Nuclear War, Nueva York, New Press, 2016.
  • Jones, Nate, y Hoffman, David: «Newly released documents shed light on 1983 nuclear war scare with Soviets», The Washington Post, 17 de febrero de 2021.
  • Kramer, Mark: «Die Nicht-Krise um “Able Archer 1983”: Fürchtete die sowjetische Führung tatsächlich einen atomaren Großangriff im Herbst 1983?», en Oliver Bange y Bernd Lemke (eds): Wege zur Wiedervereinigung: Die beiden deutschen Staaten in ihren Bündnissen 1970 bis 1990, Múnich, Oldenbourg, 2013, pp. 129-149.
  • Levadov, L. V.: «Itogi operativnoy podgotovki Ob“yedinonnykh sil NATO v 1983», Voennaya mysl’, 2 (1984), pp. 67-76.
  • Liddle Hart Centre for Military Archives [LHCMA]: Brink of Apocalypse, KCLMA GB-099, Londres, King’s College London.
  • Mastny, Vojtech: «How Able Was “Able Archer”? Nuclear Trigger and Intelligence in Perspective», Journal of Cold War Studies, 11(1) (2009), pp. 108-123.
  • Ministerium für Staatssicherheit: Merkmale zur Erkennung der gegnerischen Vorbereitung auf einen überraschenden Raketenkernwaffenangriff (26 de noviembre de 1984).
  • Ministerium für Staatssicherheit: Über die Entwicklung und den erreichten Stand der Arbeit zur Früherkennung gegnerischer Angriffs- und Überraschungsabsichten (Komp1ex RJAN) (23 de abril de 1986).
  • Migliucci, Darío; Martínez, Ferran, y Benecke, Katharina: «La crisis Able Archer (1983): un caso ejemplar de misperception», Historia Actual Online, 42(1) (2017), pp. 23-34.
  • Miles, Simon: «The War Scare that Wasn’t. Able Archer 83 and the Myths of the Second Cold War», Journal of Cold War Studies, 22(3) (2020), pp. 86-118.
  • Miles, Simon: «The mythical war scare of 1983», War on the Rocks (16 de marzo de 2021), https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/the-mythical-war-scare-of-1983.
  • Ministerium für Nationale Verteidigung: Aufklärungsmeldungen, 32672b (7 de noviembre de 1983).
  • National Intelligence Council: Why is the World So Dangerous (30 de noviembre de 1983).
  • National Intelligence Council: Regarding the influence of Oleg Gordievsky’s Reporting on President Reagan, CR-NIC- 90T00435R (16 de diciembre de 1988).
  • Oberdorfer, Don: The Turn: From the Cold War to a New Era, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991.
  • President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board: The Soviet «War Scare» (15 de febrero de 1990).
  • Pry, Peter: War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink, Nueva York, Praeger, 2000.
  • Reagan, Ronald: An American Life: The Autobiography, Nueva York, Simon & Schuster, 1990.
  • Rhodes, Richard: Arsenals of folly, Nueva York, Knopf, 2007.
  • Schaefer, Bernd: «The Warsaw Pact’s Intelligence on NATO: East German Military Espionage against the West», Parallel History Project on NATO and the Warsaw Pact (28 de octubre de 2016), http://www.php.isn.ethz.ch/lory1.ethz.ch/collections/coll_stasi/intro_schaefere6c7.html.
  • Schelling, Thomas: The Strategy of Conflict, Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1960.
  • Scott, Len: «November 1983: the most dangerous moment of the Cold War?», Intelligence and National Security, 35(1) (2020), pp. 131-148.
  • Seventh Air Division: Exercise ABLE ARCHER 83 After Action Report (1 de diciembre de 1983).
  • Shvets, Yuri: Washington Station: My Life as a KGB Spy in America, Nueva York, Simon & Schuster, 1994.
  • Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe: Able Archer 83, Mons, OTAN, 2013.
  • Winger, Anna, y Winger, Jörg: Deutschland 83, Colonia, RTL-UFA, 2015.