La relación entre el COVID-19 y el riesgo de créditoEl estudio de caso de las compañías del EuroStoxx 50

  1. Téllez Valle, Cecilia 1
  2. Martín García, Margarita 1
  3. Di Pietro, Filippo 2
  4. Martín Marín, José Luis 1
  1. 1 Universidad Pablo de Olavide
    info

    Universidad Pablo de Olavide

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02z749649

  2. 2 Universidad de Sevilla
    info

    Universidad de Sevilla

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03yxnpp24

Journal:
Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

ISSN: 1886-516X

Year of publication: 2023

Volume: 36

Type: Article

DOI: 10.46661/REV.METODOSCUANT.ECON.EMPRESA.7301 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openOpen access editor

More publications in: Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the credit risk of large European companies. We selected corporations belonged to the EuroStoxx 50 Index and whose CDS (Credit Default Swap) may be found in the iTraxx Europe Index. Then we applied the methodology of event studies to our database of companies, chosen as the event, the day of the declaration of pandemic by the WHO. The results indicate that the significance levels of the CAR (Cummulative Abnormal Default) show that the impact on the credit risk of the companies, as measured by the change in the spread of CDS, is important and depending on the sector in which the corporation is included.

Bibliographic References

  • Afonso, A., Furceri, D., & Gomes, P. (2012). Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(3), 606–638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.01.016
  • Agiakloglou, C., & Deligiannakis, E. (2019). Sovereign risk evaluation for European Union countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 103, 102-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102117
  • Alam, M. M., Wei, H., & Wahid, A. N. M. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak and sectoral performance of the Australian stock market: An event study analysis. Australian Economic Papers, October, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12215
  • Amiri-Moghadam, S., Javadi, S., & Rastad, M. (2021). The impact of stronger shareholder control on bondholders. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 56(4), 1259-1295. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002210902000040X
  • Andres, C., Betzer, A., & Doumet, M. (2021). Measuring changes in credit risk: The case of CDS event studies. Global Finance Journal, 49, 100647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100647
  • Andrie, A. M., Nistor, S., Ongena, S., & Sprincean, N. (2020). On becoming an O-SII (“Other Systemically Important Institution”) ✩. Journal of Banking and Finance, 111, 105723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105723
  • Badillo Amador, R., Belaire Franck, J., & Reverte Maya, C. (2010). Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of an endogenously determined break under the null. Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos Para La Economía y La Empresa, 9(June), 3–16. file:///C:/Users/ctelv/Downloads/2156-Texto del artículo-6739-1-10-20161026.pdf
  • Ball, R., & Brown, P. (1968). An Empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research, 6(2), 159–178. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2490232
  • Barley, R. (2008). Factbox-Five facts about the iTraxx Europe index. U.S Market News. https://www.reuters.com/article/itraxx-idUKL1211809720080212
  • Bedendo, M., & Colla, P. (2015). Sovereign and corporate credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone. Journal of Corporate Finance, 33, 34–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.04.006
  • Bertoni, F., & Lugo, S. (2018). Detecting abnormal changes in credit default swap spreads using matching-portfolio models R. Journal of Banking and Finance, 90, 146–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.03.009
  • Bessembinder, H., Kahle, K. M., Maxwell, W. F., & Xu, D. (2009). Measuring abnormal bond performance. Review of Financial Studies, 22(10), 4219–4258. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn105
  • Binici, M., Hutchison, M., & Miao, E. W. (2020). Market price effects of agency sovereign debt announcements: Importance of prior credit states. International Review of Economics and Finance. 69. 769-787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.005
  • Blanco, R., Brennan, S., & Marsh, I. W. (2005). An empirical analysis of the dynamic relation between investment-grade bonds and Credit Default Swaps. The Journal of Finance, LX(5, October), 2255-2281. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00798.x
  • Blau, B. M., & Roseman, B. S. (2014). The reaction of European credit default swap spreads to the U.S. credit rating downgrade. International Review of Economics and Finance, 34, 131–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2014.07.009
  • Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns. The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(85)90042-X
  • Callen, J. L., Livnat, J., & Segal, D. (2009). The impact of earnings on the pricing of credit Default swaps. Accounting Review, 84(5), 1363–1394. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2009.84.5.1363
  • Castellano, R., & D’ecclesia, R. L. (2013). CDS volatility: the key signal of credit quality. Annals of Operations Research, 205, 89–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-012-1244-9
  • Drago, D., Carnevale, C., & Gallo, R. (2019). Do corporate social responsibility ratings affect credit default swap spreads?, Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management. 26. 644-652. https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.1709
  • Drago, D., & Gallo, R. (2016). The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market. Journal of International Money and Finance. 67. 264-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.06.004
  • Dyckman, T., Philbrick, D., & Stephan, J. (1984). A comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns: A simulation approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 1–30. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2490855
  • Fama, E. F. (1969). Efficient Capital Markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
  • Finnerty, J. D., Miller, C. D., & Chen, R. R. (2013). The impact of credit rating announcements on Credit Default Swap spreads. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(6), 2011–2030. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Jbankfin.2013.01.028
  • Galil, K., Moshe Shapir, O., Amiram, D., & Ben-Zion, U. (2013). The determinants of CDS spreads. Journal of Banking and Finance. 41. 271-282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.005
  • Goh, J. C., & Ederington, L. H. (1993). Is a bond rating downgrade bad news, good news, or no news for stockholders? The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 2001–2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05139.x
  • Griffin, P. A., & Sanvicente, A. Z. (1982). Common stock returns and rating changes: A methodological comparison. The Journal of Finance, 37(1), 103–119. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1982.tb01098.x
  • Hand, J. R. M., Holthausen, R. W., & Leftwich, R. W. (1992). The effect of bond rating agency announcements on bond and stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 733–752. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04407.x
  • Hull, J., Predescu, M., White, A., & Rotman, J. L. (2004). The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements. Journal of Banking and Finance. 28. 2789-2811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.010
  • IHS Markit. (2019). iTraxx Europe and iTraxx Crossover index rules (Issue August).
  • Ismailescu, I., & Kazemi, H. (2010). The reaction of emerging market Credit Default Swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(12), 2861–2873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.05.014
  • Kiesel, F., & Kolaric, S. (2018). Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 50, 653–672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-017-0641-1
  • King, M. R. (2011). Time to buy or just buying time? the market reaction to bank rescue packages. SSRN Electronic Journal, 288, Article 288. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1481578
  • Lee, J., Naranjo, A., & Velioglu, G. (2018). When do CDS spreads lead? Rating events, private entities, and firm-specific information flows. Journal of Financial Economics, 130(3), 556–578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.07.011
  • Lleshaj, D., & Kocian, J. (2020). Short selling disclosure and its impact on CDS spreads. The European Journal of Finance. 27 (11), 1117-1150. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2020.1858129
  • Longstaff, F. A. (2011). How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? American Economic Journal, 3(April), 75-103. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.2.75
  • Loon, Y. C., & Zhong, Z. K. (2014). The impact of central clearing on counterparty risk, liquidity, and trading: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap market. Journal of Financial Economics, 112(1), 91–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.12.001
  • Micu, M., Remolana, E. M., & Wooldridge, P. D. (2004). The price impact of rating announcements: evidence from credit default swap market. BIS Quarterly Review, June. 55-65.
  • Norden, L., & Weber, M. (2004). Informational efficiency of Credit Default Swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(11), 2813–2843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.011
  • Pereira da Silva, P. (2016). Earnings surprises and the response of CDS markets. Studies in Economics and Finance, 33(3), 377–402. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-11-2014-0217
  • Pinches, G. E., & Singleton, J. C. (1978). The adjustment of stock prices to bond rating changes. The Journal of Finance, 33(1), 29–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb03387.x
  • Pop, A., & Pop, D. (2009). Requiem for market discipline and the specter of TBTF in Japanese banking. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49(4), 1429–1459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2009.08.001
  • Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A theory of market equyilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 18(3), 425–442. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2977928
  • Shivakumar, L., Urcan, O., Vasvari, F. P., & Zhang, L. (2011). The debt market relevance of management earnings forecasts: evidence from before and during the credit crisis. Review of Accounting Studies, 16(3), 464–486. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-011-9155-6.
  • Stankevičienė, J., & Akelaitis, S. (2014). Impact of public announcements on stock prices: relation between values of stock prices and the price changes in Lithuanian stock market. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 156(April), 538–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.236
  • Steiner, M., & Heinke, V. G. (2001). Event study concerning international bond price effects of credit rating actions. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(2), 139–157. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.148
  • Weinstein, M. I. (1977). The effect of a rating change announcement on bond price. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(3), 329–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90042-3
  • Wengner, A., Burghof, H.-P., & Schneider, J. (2015). The impact of credit rating announcements on corporate CDS markets-Are intra-industry effects observable? Journal of Economics and Business, 78, 79–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.11.003
  • Zhang, G., & Zhang, S. (2013). Information efficiency of the U.S. Credit Default Swap market: Evidence from earnings surprises. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 720–730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2011.10.005