Economic Crisis and Household Formation in the Iberian Peninsula (2003-2017)

  1. Alberto Montero Soler
  2. Jonathan Torres Téllez
Revista:
Revista portuguesa de estudos regionais

ISSN: 1645-586X

Año de publicación: 2022

Número: 62

Páginas: 77-97

Tipo: Artículo

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Otras publicaciones en: Revista portuguesa de estudos regionais

Resumen

Este artículo toma el caso de España y Portugal durante el periodo2003-2017 para investigar el efecto que tiene un shock económico negativo sobre la formación de hogares y la duración de di-chos efectos. Para ello se estima un modelo VAR en el que se incorporan diversas variables que inciden sobre la creación de nuevos hogares. Los resultados indican que el impacto negativo tiene efectos diferenciales en ambas economías: mientras que en el caso portugués el impacto es casi inmediato y se prolonga durante seis trimestres, en España se manifiesta precisamente a partir de ese momento. También se constata cómo la formación de nuevos hogares en Portugal presenta mayor sensibilidad a la de oferta en el mercado inmobiliario que en España. Además, a largo plazo el peso de las variables relacionadas con el mercado inmobiliario español pueden llegar a explicar más del 60% de esa variabilidad, y en Portugal son la tasa de desempleo y el precio de la vivienda las que adquieren una mayor relevancia

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