La relación entre el COVID-19 y el riesgo de créditoEl estudio de caso de las compañías del EuroStoxx 50

  1. Téllez Valle, Cecilia 1
  2. Martín García, Margarita 1
  3. Di Pietro, Filippo 2
  4. Martín Marín, José Luis 1
  1. 1 Universidad Pablo de Olavide
    info

    Universidad Pablo de Olavide

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02z749649

  2. 2 Universidad de Sevilla
    info

    Universidad de Sevilla

    Sevilla, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03yxnpp24

Revista:
Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

ISSN: 1886-516X

Año de publicación: 2023

Volumen: 36

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.46661/REV.METODOSCUANT.ECON.EMPRESA.7301 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

Resumen

En este artículo se explora el impacto de la pandemia del COVID-19 en el riesgo de crédito de grandes compañías europeas. Se seleccionan las empresas incluidas en el índice EuroStoxx50 y aquellas cuyos CDS (derivado sobre incumplimiento de crédito) cotizan dentro del índice iTraxx Europe. A continuación, se aplica la metodología de estudio de eventos a las compañías de la muestra, eligiendo como evento de estudio el día de la declaración, por la OMS, del a pandemia, con una ventana de estimación de 120 días de negociación de mercado y una ventana de evento de +/- 10 días. Los resultados de CAR (rentabilidades anormales acumuladas) indican que el impacto en el riesgo de crédito de las compañías, medido por variaciones en las primas de los CDS es importante, y depende del sector al que pertenece la empresa.

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Afonso, A., Furceri, D., & Gomes, P. (2012). Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(3), 606–638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.01.016
  • Agiakloglou, C., & Deligiannakis, E. (2019). Sovereign risk evaluation for European Union countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 103, 102-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102117
  • Alam, M. M., Wei, H., & Wahid, A. N. M. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak and sectoral performance of the Australian stock market: An event study analysis. Australian Economic Papers, October, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12215
  • Amiri-Moghadam, S., Javadi, S., & Rastad, M. (2021). The impact of stronger shareholder control on bondholders. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 56(4), 1259-1295. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002210902000040X
  • Andres, C., Betzer, A., & Doumet, M. (2021). Measuring changes in credit risk: The case of CDS event studies. Global Finance Journal, 49, 100647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100647
  • Andrie, A. M., Nistor, S., Ongena, S., & Sprincean, N. (2020). On becoming an O-SII (“Other Systemically Important Institution”) ✩. Journal of Banking and Finance, 111, 105723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105723
  • Badillo Amador, R., Belaire Franck, J., & Reverte Maya, C. (2010). Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of an endogenously determined break under the null. Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos Para La Economía y La Empresa, 9(June), 3–16. file:///C:/Users/ctelv/Downloads/2156-Texto del artículo-6739-1-10-20161026.pdf
  • Ball, R., & Brown, P. (1968). An Empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research, 6(2), 159–178. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2490232
  • Barley, R. (2008). Factbox-Five facts about the iTraxx Europe index. U.S Market News. https://www.reuters.com/article/itraxx-idUKL1211809720080212
  • Bedendo, M., & Colla, P. (2015). Sovereign and corporate credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone. Journal of Corporate Finance, 33, 34–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.04.006
  • Bertoni, F., & Lugo, S. (2018). Detecting abnormal changes in credit default swap spreads using matching-portfolio models R. Journal of Banking and Finance, 90, 146–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.03.009
  • Bessembinder, H., Kahle, K. M., Maxwell, W. F., & Xu, D. (2009). Measuring abnormal bond performance. Review of Financial Studies, 22(10), 4219–4258. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn105
  • Binici, M., Hutchison, M., & Miao, E. W. (2020). Market price effects of agency sovereign debt announcements: Importance of prior credit states. International Review of Economics and Finance. 69. 769-787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.005
  • Blanco, R., Brennan, S., & Marsh, I. W. (2005). An empirical analysis of the dynamic relation between investment-grade bonds and Credit Default Swaps. The Journal of Finance, LX(5, October), 2255-2281. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00798.x
  • Blau, B. M., & Roseman, B. S. (2014). The reaction of European credit default swap spreads to the U.S. credit rating downgrade. International Review of Economics and Finance, 34, 131–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2014.07.009
  • Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns. The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(85)90042-X
  • Callen, J. L., Livnat, J., & Segal, D. (2009). The impact of earnings on the pricing of credit Default swaps. Accounting Review, 84(5), 1363–1394. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2009.84.5.1363
  • Castellano, R., & D’ecclesia, R. L. (2013). CDS volatility: the key signal of credit quality. Annals of Operations Research, 205, 89–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-012-1244-9
  • Drago, D., Carnevale, C., & Gallo, R. (2019). Do corporate social responsibility ratings affect credit default swap spreads?, Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management. 26. 644-652. https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.1709
  • Drago, D., & Gallo, R. (2016). The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market. Journal of International Money and Finance. 67. 264-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.06.004
  • Dyckman, T., Philbrick, D., & Stephan, J. (1984). A comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns: A simulation approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 1–30. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2490855
  • Fama, E. F. (1969). Efficient Capital Markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
  • Finnerty, J. D., Miller, C. D., & Chen, R. R. (2013). The impact of credit rating announcements on Credit Default Swap spreads. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(6), 2011–2030. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Jbankfin.2013.01.028
  • Galil, K., Moshe Shapir, O., Amiram, D., & Ben-Zion, U. (2013). The determinants of CDS spreads. Journal of Banking and Finance. 41. 271-282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.005
  • Goh, J. C., & Ederington, L. H. (1993). Is a bond rating downgrade bad news, good news, or no news for stockholders? The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 2001–2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05139.x
  • Griffin, P. A., & Sanvicente, A. Z. (1982). Common stock returns and rating changes: A methodological comparison. The Journal of Finance, 37(1), 103–119. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1982.tb01098.x
  • Hand, J. R. M., Holthausen, R. W., & Leftwich, R. W. (1992). The effect of bond rating agency announcements on bond and stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 733–752. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04407.x
  • Hull, J., Predescu, M., White, A., & Rotman, J. L. (2004). The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements. Journal of Banking and Finance. 28. 2789-2811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.010
  • IHS Markit. (2019). iTraxx Europe and iTraxx Crossover index rules (Issue August).
  • Ismailescu, I., & Kazemi, H. (2010). The reaction of emerging market Credit Default Swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(12), 2861–2873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.05.014
  • Kiesel, F., & Kolaric, S. (2018). Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 50, 653–672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-017-0641-1
  • King, M. R. (2011). Time to buy or just buying time? the market reaction to bank rescue packages. SSRN Electronic Journal, 288, Article 288. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1481578
  • Lee, J., Naranjo, A., & Velioglu, G. (2018). When do CDS spreads lead? Rating events, private entities, and firm-specific information flows. Journal of Financial Economics, 130(3), 556–578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.07.011
  • Lleshaj, D., & Kocian, J. (2020). Short selling disclosure and its impact on CDS spreads. The European Journal of Finance. 27 (11), 1117-1150. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2020.1858129
  • Longstaff, F. A. (2011). How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? American Economic Journal, 3(April), 75-103. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.2.75
  • Loon, Y. C., & Zhong, Z. K. (2014). The impact of central clearing on counterparty risk, liquidity, and trading: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap market. Journal of Financial Economics, 112(1), 91–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.12.001
  • Micu, M., Remolana, E. M., & Wooldridge, P. D. (2004). The price impact of rating announcements: evidence from credit default swap market. BIS Quarterly Review, June. 55-65.
  • Norden, L., & Weber, M. (2004). Informational efficiency of Credit Default Swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(11), 2813–2843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.011
  • Pereira da Silva, P. (2016). Earnings surprises and the response of CDS markets. Studies in Economics and Finance, 33(3), 377–402. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-11-2014-0217
  • Pinches, G. E., & Singleton, J. C. (1978). The adjustment of stock prices to bond rating changes. The Journal of Finance, 33(1), 29–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb03387.x
  • Pop, A., & Pop, D. (2009). Requiem for market discipline and the specter of TBTF in Japanese banking. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49(4), 1429–1459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2009.08.001
  • Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A theory of market equyilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 18(3), 425–442. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2977928
  • Shivakumar, L., Urcan, O., Vasvari, F. P., & Zhang, L. (2011). The debt market relevance of management earnings forecasts: evidence from before and during the credit crisis. Review of Accounting Studies, 16(3), 464–486. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-011-9155-6.
  • Stankevičienė, J., & Akelaitis, S. (2014). Impact of public announcements on stock prices: relation between values of stock prices and the price changes in Lithuanian stock market. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 156(April), 538–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.236
  • Steiner, M., & Heinke, V. G. (2001). Event study concerning international bond price effects of credit rating actions. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(2), 139–157. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.148
  • Weinstein, M. I. (1977). The effect of a rating change announcement on bond price. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(3), 329–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90042-3
  • Wengner, A., Burghof, H.-P., & Schneider, J. (2015). The impact of credit rating announcements on corporate CDS markets-Are intra-industry effects observable? Journal of Economics and Business, 78, 79–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.11.003
  • Zhang, G., & Zhang, S. (2013). Information efficiency of the U.S. Credit Default Swap market: Evidence from earnings surprises. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 720–730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2011.10.005